Credit Risk Fundamentals
Credit risk is the risk that a borrower will fail to make promised payments on time.
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Credit risk is the risk that a borrower will fail to make promised payments on time.
Credit rating agencies distil complex credit risk analysis into a simple alphabetical grade.
In 1968, Edward Altman of New York University combined five financial ratios into a single score that predicted corporate bankruptcy with reasonable accuracy.
A bond is a loan in tradeable form. The borrower (issuer) promises to pay fixed interest (coupon) periodically and return the principal (face value) at maturity.
When a lender extends a large loan, they don't just hand over the money and hope for the best.
A credit score is a number that summarises an individual's credit history and predicts the probability of default on a future loan.
The single discount rate at which a bond's future coupons and principal repayment equal its current market price. It is the total annualised return from holding the bond to maturity.
The extra yield a corporate bond pays over a government bond of the same maturity, compensating for default risk and lower liquidity.
An agency's opinion of a borrower's ability to repay, expressed on a letter scale from AAA (highest safety) down to D (default). In India the major agencies are CRISIL, ICRA, and CARE.
Cash available for debt service divided by scheduled principal and interest payments. It measures whether operations generate enough cash to meet debt obligations as they fall due.
The fixed annual interest a bond pays as a percentage of its face value. It is set at issue and does not change with the market price.
A measure of a bond's price sensitivity to interest-rate changes, expressed in years. Longer duration means bigger price swings when yields move.
A loan on which interest or principal has remained overdue for more than 90 days. Banks must classify such loans separately and provide against expected losses.
A condition attached to a loan or bond that the borrower must maintain, such as a maximum leverage ratio or minimum coverage ratio. Breaching one can trigger penalties or immediate repayment.
Promoters borrowing against their own shareholding by pledging shares as collateral. Disclosed quarterly in Indian shareholding patterns.
The number of days cash stays locked in operations: inventory days plus receivable days minus payable days.
The share of a bank's total deposits held in current and savings accounts. Current accounts pay no interest and savings accounts pay roughly 3 to 4 percent, so a high CASA ratio means the bank funds its loans with cheap money.
The blended average interest a bank pays across all its deposits and borrowings: current accounts at 0 percent, savings at about 3 percent, fixed deposits at about 6.5 percent, and other funding.
Interest a bank earns on its loans and investments minus the interest it pays on deposits and borrowings, expressed as a percentage of its interest-earning assets. It accounts for funds the bank could not lend out.
A bank's capital measured against its risk-weighted assets. It shows how much cushion the bank has to absorb loan losses and how much further lending it can support.
Money a bank sets aside from its income against loans it doubts will be repaid. Provisions are charged to the profit and loss statement before profit is struck.
Related topics: Valuation, DCF, Relative Valuation, Cost of Capital, Financial Statements, Cash Flow, Earnings Quality, Red Flags