IPO Issue Price vs. Listing Price vs. Subsequent Performance

Three Prices for Every IPO

Every IPO has at least three prices that matter:

• The issue price, paid by investors who were allotted shares.
• The listing price, the first trade on the exchange, which is what most investors who missed the allotment end up paying.
• The later price, which shows what the investment became.

Listing-day gains get the headlines. This case study tracks all three for seven of India's most talked-about IPOs since 2021.

The Data

*Adjusted for bonus issues: Nykaa's 5:1 bonus in 2022 (original issue price ₹1,125, first trade ₹2,018) and LIC's 1:1 bonus in 2026 (original issue price ₹949, first trade ₹872).

Finding 1: Listing-Day Buyers Mostly Lost

Six of the seven traded below their first listing price in October 2026. Only Zomato, now Eternal, rewarded investors who bought on the first day. For Nykaa, a 79% listing pop turned into a small loss for listing-day buyers, even though allottees were still well ahead.

The pattern is simple: when a stock jumps on listing, the gain goes to allottees, and later buyers pay the higher price.

Finding 2: Allottees Did Better, but Not Always

Measured from the issue price, three of the seven were up and four were down. Allottees in Zomato and Nykaa did well. Allottees in Paytm, LIC and Swiggy were sitting on losses, and Hyundai and PB Fintech were close to their issue prices.

Finding 3: Listing-Day Demand Did Not Predict Later Returns

Nykaa had one of the strongest listings in the group and was below its listing price five years later. Paytm and LIC listed below their issue prices and stayed below. Zomato listed strongly and kept rising. There is no consistent link between the size of the listing move and what happened next.

What did matter was the business. Zomato's food delivery business became profitable and its quick commerce arm, Blinkit, grew into a major business. Paytm faced regulatory action on its payments bank in 2024.

Finding 4: The End Date Matters Here Too

The comparison ends in October 2026, after the Nifty had fallen about 11% for the year. Newer listings such as Swiggy and Hyundai had little time to recover from a weak market. A study ending at a market high would show better numbers for most of these companies.

A Simple Comparison With the Index

Measured from each company's own listing date to mid-October 2026, the Nifty 50 rose about 46% from Zomato's listing in July 2021 and roughly 25% to 45% from the late-2021 and 2022 listings, while it was slightly lower than at the two late-2024 listings. Against those benchmarks, only Eternal and Nykaa clearly beat the index from their issue prices, and Hyundai roughly kept pace with a slightly falling market. Measured from the first trade, only Eternal clearly did better. For an investor choosing between a basket of these high-profile IPOs and a simple index fund, the index would have been the better choice in most cases, with far less risk of a single large loss.

That is one comparison, over one period. But it is a useful test for any IPO decision: would the money have done better in the index?

Limits of This Study

• Seven companies chosen for their profile are not a representative sample.
• Dividends are ignored, which slightly understates returns for dividend payers such as LIC.
• One end date during a market fall.
• Survivorship and selection: less famous IPOs, including some that did much worse or much better, are not included.

Habits for Investing Around IPOs

1. Separate the allottee's return from the listing-day buyer's return.
2. Judge an IPO on the business and the price, not the listing pop.
3. Adjust for bonus issues and splits when comparing prices over time.
4. Use a longer period before drawing conclusions about a listing.
5. Compare with the index over the same dates.

The Reframe

A listing gain is a transfer from the people who buy on day one to the people who were allotted shares. Whether anyone makes money after that depends, as always, on the business and the price paid for it.